Stock market forecasts tend to assume that the future will look like the recent past. Unfortunately, this approach doesnt always work.
In my opinion, Tesco (LSE: TSCO) (NASDAQOTH: TSCDY.US) could be a case in point: I think theres a real possibility Tescos share price might fall as low as 200p, as Ill explain.
A fresh look
To come up with my own view on Tescos future earnings, Ive started with last years sales figures, and applied some fresh assumptions about profitability, divestments and dividends:
| Tesco | Value |
| 2013/14 sales | 70,894m |
| 10% for further declines & selected disposals of overseas businesses | -7,089m |
| New sales total | 63,805m |
My somewhat arbitrary 10% cut in sales is based on two assumptions: firstly, that Tescos UK sales will fall again this year, and secondly, that the firm may scale back operations in selected overseas markets.
Falling margins
Its clear that Tescos prices will have to fall to lure customers back from Aldi and Lidl, but we dont know how far Tescos profit margins will fall.
However, Frances largest supermarket, Carrefour, has seen its margins fall from more than 6% to less than 3% during its turnaround, while J Sainsbury also has an operating margin of less than 4%.
To calculate my estimate of Tescos earnings, Ive assumed that the firms operating margin will fall to 3.5%:
| Tesco | Value |
| New operating margin | 3.5% |
| New operating profit | 2,233m |
| Net interest costs | -315m |
| Tax (c. 20%) | -384m |
| New post-tax profit | 1,534m |
| New earnings per share from continuing operations | 18.9p |
Tesco reported earnings from continuing operations of 23.8p per share in 2013/14, so my figures represent another 20% fall, which is drastic, but certainly not terminal.
What about the dividend?
In my new scenario, Tescos existing 14.75p dividend is only covered 1.3 times by earnings, which looks too tight to me. Id expect the payout to be cut to give a cover level of around 2, as has been the case historically.
This would mean a dividend of around 10p per share, equating to a 4% yield at todays share price, or a 5% yield at a share price of 200p.
Another coincidence
Its also interesting to note that currently, both Wm. Morrison Supermarkets and Sainsbury trade at close to their book value, whereas Tesco trades at 1.4 times book value.
A share price of 200p would value Tescos shares at 1.1 times book value a more modest valuation that would still value the firm ahead of its peers.
Is Tesco still a buy?
Tescos shares might fall to 200p and they might not. Trying to time the bottom is always risky, and I believe Tesco shares are already cheap enough to rate as a buy, ahead of the firms half-year results in October.
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Roland Headowns shares in Tesco and Wm. Morrison Supermarkets. The Motley Fool UK owns shares of Tesco. We Fools don’t all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.
