They may operate in completely different markets but construction and support services firm Carillion (LSE: CLLN) and cyber security business NCC Group (LSE: NCC) do share one similarity. Theyve both endured huge share price falls of late.
Which, if either, should plucky investors back to turn things around? Heres my view.
Grim numbers
After an awful end to 2016 (when the company disclosed the loss of three major contracts), there was never any expectation that todays full-year numbers from NCC were going to be anything other than fairly dire. So proved to be the case.
Despite group revenue rising 17% to 245m over the 12months to the end of May, the company still booked an operating loss of 53.4m in the last financial year. Contrast that with 2016s operating profit of 11.4m.
So why are the shares currently up 8%? It all seems to be down to a positive reaction to the conclusions reached from the companys strategic review.
While reflecting that recent performance had fallen well short of original expectations, Executive Chairman Chris Stone stated that NCC still enjoyed significant organic growth in its core markets.
In addition to highlighting the companys intention to improve the way it wasorganised, Stone was keen to draw attention to the NCCs sound finances (net debt fell to 43.7m from the 48.8m figure reported at the end of H1) and how sentiment towards the Manchester-based business from markets and customers continued to be positive.
The market also appeared reassured by the fact that earnings expectations for 2018 hadnt been altered and the dividend has been maintained.
For long-term investors, I think NCC could be a decent buy, even if its stock trades at a still-rather-expensive 22 times forecast earnings. The demand for cyber security services will only grow over time and the companys decision to focus on this (and sell its Web Performance and Software Testing businesses) appears sensible.
Worth a punt?
Embattled Carillions share price also climbed higher this morning following the announcement it had managed to bag two new contracts with the governments Defence Infrastructure Organisation (DIO).
Worth a combined total of 158m over five years, the contracts will involve the company delivering soft facilities management services to 233 military establishments in the North of England, Scotland and Northern Ireland. Positively, the contracts also allow Carillion the opportunity to further increase earnings through catering and retail sales.
With this news coming hot on the heels of yesterdays announcement that the company has been appointed to deliver part of the HS2 rail line, should investors see recent events (and todays 12% share price rise) as an indication that its time to pile in? Not in my opinion.
Putting things in perspective, the recent uplift in its share price is more likely the result of short sellers closing their positions rather than a reaction to these contract wins.
In addition to the above, at roughly three times its market capitalisation, the huge debt burden hanging over the company simply cant be ignored.
With the dividend suspended and a rights issue looking increasingly likely, throwing cash at Carillion now appears more akin to gambling than investing and the very opposite of the philosophy espoused by the Fool.
For me, NCC looks the far better buy of the two.