These are uncertain times for the house-builders, which took a major hit after the Brexit vote and have only recently shown signs of recovery. Yet the UK propertymarket continues to boom, with prices up 6.5% in the past year, according to latest Halifax data, while the housingcrisis only seems to worsen. So what do todays results from Taylor Wimpey (LSE: TW) tellus about the sector?
Far from Wimpey
There was certainly no sign of crisis in todays numbers.2016 home completions totalled13,881 including joint ventures, up 4% on 13,341 in 2015.Average selling prices on private completions increased 13% to 286,000, up from 254,000 in 2015, helped by better quality locations. Its overall average selling price increased 11% to 255,000, up from 230,000.
Taylor Wimpeysnet private reservation rate was 0.72 homes per outlet per week, down marginally from 0.73, while its cancellation rates remained low at 13%, against12% before. So no worries there. Itended the year with net cash of around 365m, up from 223.3m in December 2015. That is after paying dividends totalling355.9m in 2016, up from 308.4m in 2015. Lucky shareholders.
Taylor made
Chief executive Pete Redfern talked up rising completions, robust trading, a strong forward order book and predicted full-yearprofitability at the upper end of consensus, despite challenging conditions. Which all looks positive to me but investors are clearly cautiousabout the sector, with the share price nearly 2% down in early trading.
That may be partly downtothe Taylor Wimpey super soaraway success story, which has seen theshare price rise a stonking 352% in the last five years. Its also up 21% over the last three months, as investors decided initial fears over the damage Brexit might inflict on the house-building sector were overdone.
Sector uncertainty
The sector has delivered mixed results in recent weeks, with Bovis Homes Group (LSE: BVS) delivering a shock profit warning shortly after reporting that it was on course for record revenues. This knockedvalues across the sector but turned out to be a company-specific problem,caused bydelays in getting the final sign-off for 180 houses before the end of the year.
Last week,Persimmon (LSE: PSN) soothed fragile nervesby reporting an 8% rise in 2016 revenues to 3.14bn, with new home volumes up 4.1% to 15,171, and theaverage selling price rising4% from 199,127to 206,700. Healthy customer demand, low mortgage rates, and the attraction of buying a new-build are all sustaining sales, management said.
Build, baby, build
Personally, I believe the house-builders havebeen oversold, and Im evidentlynot alone in this, as investors have been rushing in lately. Taylor Wimpey is up 13% in the last week alone, yet still trades at a far from demanding forecast valuation of just 9.6 times earnings, while the yield is a forecast 7.9%.
Forecast earnings per share figures suggest a sharp slowdown from 17% last year to -1% in 2017, and a slightrecovery to 4% in 2018. So investors must brace themselves for some volatility. Rising interest rates would hit sentiment, although I dont foresee much upward movementin the UK. While the housing shortage continues, companies like Taylor Wimpeyshould continue to build on their recent success.
The doom-mongers said Brexit would be a disaster for the UK, until the FTSE 100 surprised everybody by rebounding to new highs.
However, this is still a phoney war and the turbulence may return with a vengeance once Prime Minister Theresa May triggers Article 50.
This NEW special Motley Fool report sets out exactly what Brexit means for your portfolio, and how you can take advantage by picking up top company stocks at bargain basement prices.
Don’t fret about Brexit any longer but click here to read this no obligation report. It will be yours in moments and won’t cost you a penny.
Harvey Jones has no position in any shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. We Fools don’t all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.