Are Dividends Built To Last At GlaxoSmithKline plc And Diageo plc?

Some dividends have staying power. Companies delivering enduring dividends tend to back such often-rising payouts with robust business and financial achievement.

Fragile dividends, meanwhile, arise because of weaker operational and financial characteristics. Those are the dividends to avoid. However, fragile dividends often tempt me because of high dividend yields.

How to tell the difference

Under the spotlight today, two FTSE 100 firms: GlaxoSmithKline (LSE: GSK) the pharmaceutical giant and Diageo (LSE: DGE) the premium drinks provider.

These firms operate in different sectors, but they both have attractive dividend yields. At the recent share price of 1393p GlaxoSmithKlines forward yield for 2016 is 5.9%. At 1852p, Diageos yield for year to June 2016 is 3.2%.

Here are some tests to gauge business and financial quality. Each test scores a maximum five.

1. Dividend record

Both firms enjoy a record of rising ordinary dividends:

Ordinary dividends	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
GlaxoSmithKline (pence)	70	74	78	80	80(e)
Diageo (pence)	40.4	43.5	47.4	51.7p	56.4

Over four years GaxoSmithKlines dividend advanced 14%. Diageos moved forward by 40%.

For their dividend records, Im scoring GaxoSmithKline 3/5 and Diageo 4/5.

2. Dividend cover

GlaxoSmithKline expects adjusted earnings to cover its dividend around once for the year to June 2016. Diageos earnings look set to cover the firms dividend around 1.5 times.

However, cash pays dividends, so its worth looking at how well, or poorly, both companies cover their dividend payouts with free cash flow too.

On dividend cover from earnings, Im scoring GlaxoSmithKline 2/5 and Diageo 3/5.

3. Cash flow

Dividend cover from earnings means little if cash flow doesnt support profits.

Here are the firms recent records on cash flow compared to profits:

GlaxoSmithKline	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
Operating profit (m)	3,783	7,807	7,300	7,028	3,597
Net cash from operations (m)	6,797	6,250	4,375	7,222	5,176
Diageo
Operating profit (m)	2,595	3,158	3,380	2,707	2,797
Net cash from operations (m)	2,183	2,093	2,033	1,790	2,551

GlaxoSmithKline displays a consistent ability to support profits with cash flow. Diageos cash flow, although steady, tends to fall below reported profits.

Im scoring GaxoSmithKline 4/5 and Diageo 3/5.

4. Gross debt

Interest payments on borrowed money compete with dividend payments for incoming cash flow. Thats why big debts are undesirable in dividend-led investments.

GlaxoSmithKlines debt load runs at almost five times the level of its annual operating profits. Diageos borrowings are about 3.5 times annual operating profits.

For their debt positions, Im scoring GlaxoSmithKline 1/5 and Diageo 2/5.

5. Degree of cyclicality

GlaxoSmithKline and Diageo operate similar consumer-product-driven businesses characterised by stable demand and reliable cash flows. As such, they stand among the least cyclical firms listed on the London market.

However, to get full marks in this category I like to see a faster rate of growth in earnings than these two slow growers offer, so Im awarding both GlaxoSmithKline and Diageo 4/5.

Putting it all together

Here are the final scores for these firms:

	GlaxoSmithKline	Diageo
Dividend record	3	4
Dividend cover	2	3
Cash flow	4	3
Debt	1	2
Degree of cyclicality	4	4
Total score out of 25	14	16

Diageo wins this contest, but neither firm is perfect by these measures, so my search for dividend champions continues.