LGO Energy(LSE: LGO) has become one of AIMs most followed companies over the past 12 months. Investors have been drawn in byLGOsprogress at its Goudron oil field in Trinidad, where productioncurrently standsat around 1,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd).
However, despite an extensive drilling program,LGOsoil production has hardly increased over the past year. At the end of September 2014,LGOsmanagement announced that the groups oil production had reached a record 1,080bopd, with
further increases expected in due course as new wells are drilled, completed and broughtonlineas part of the Companys development plans in Trinidad.
But these increases have so far failed to materialize.
Steady production growth
At the end of last year production briefly surpassed 2,000bopdand averaged 1,685bopdfor the month of December. However, current year-on-year production figures show only moderate growth, even after including potential production from new wells.
A recent press release from the company announced that group oil production averaged 951 bopd during the second quarter 2015. Still, this figure doesnt fully reflect LGOs current production. Production numbers from four additional wells only brought online at the end of the period were not included in the end-of-July update.
Management intends toupdate production guidance once all seven new wells completed during 2015 wells have beenbrought online. The four new wells, not included in current production figures, are labeled GY-672, 673 and 674.LGOs2015 drilling programme has been highly successful. All wells drilled have encounteredhydrocarbons andLGOis nearing the end of its drilling programme with one well left to be drilled this year.
When tested,GY-674, in particular, delivered a natural flow rate of approximately 240 bopd, and LGO estimates that the well could achieve an absolute open-hole flow rate of approximately 500 bopd. Simply put, the additional production from these wells could increase overall group production by more than 25%.
Is LGOset for the big time?
The key question is, willLGOever be able to make it to the big time? Well, the company has all of the tools needed to maintain growthat its disposal.
Management announced earlier this year thatthe estimated oil in place at the Goudron field in Trinidad has increased by over five-fold, to 805m barrels of oil after a new independent review was carried out. Moreover, group oil production is steady, andLGOhas the finance in place to fund its development plans. Specifically, the company signed a $25m complex pre-paid swap facility with BNP Paribas during March.
$11.8m has already been drawn from this facility to fund the seven new Goudron wells and upgrade the fields oil handling infrastructure, and $13.3m remains to fundLGOsfuture development plans.
However, theres one big red flag that jumps out when looking throughLGOsfinancial statements:cash flow.
Cash is king
For example, for full-year 2014LGOreported net oil sales of 203,712 barrels but only reported a net cash inflow from operations of503,000. As oil prices are currently trading near a six-year low,LGOsfinancial position is unlikely to have improved this year.
Inbusiness,cash is king, and unlessLgocan improve its cash generation, a certain amount of uncertainty will cloud the companys outlook. Overall, its not possible to estimateLgosfuture potential with any degree of certainty at present.
So, if you’re looking for a company with a more predictable outlook, the Motley Fool’s top analysts have recently identified a company that they consider to be one of the market’s“top small caps”.
All is revealed inour new free reportentitled“Is This Stock Tomorrow’s Big Winner?”
Don’t delay, download thefree report today— but hurry, it’s only available for a limited time.
Rupert Hargreaves has no position in any shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. We Fools don’t all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.
